Tuesday, 7 February 2012

3 is a magic number

We’re third in the league and want to stay there (or move higher – League/Cup double anyone?)

We’ve got three tough games coming up running us into March. We have to keep focussed and make sure we still have a decent lead over the chasing pack before we meet Everton at Goodison on March 10th.

I try not to worry about what other teams are up to, and concentrate on what Spurs are doing, but it’ll be difficult not to be checking on what Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool and Newcastle are up to just as keenly as I’ll be watching Spurs matches.

So, to keep my own obsessive side happy, let’s take a look at who the top seven are playing over the next three weeks.

Man City
Villa (a)
Blackburn (h)
Bolton (h)

Man Utd
Liverpool (h)
Norwich (a)
Tottenham (a)

Tottenham
Newcastle (h)
Arsenal (a)
Man Utd (h)

Chelsea
Everton (a)
Bolton (h)
Albion (a)

Newcastle
Tottenham (a)
Wolves (h)
Sunderland (h)

Arsenal
Sunderland (a)
Tottenham (h)
Liverpool (a)

Liverpool
Man Utd (a)
No game – Carling Cup final
Arsenal (h)

City and Chelsea seem to have it easy, while the rest of us are mostly playing each other in the coming weeks.

I can’t see any real reason to suspect City won’t collect a maximum 9 points, taking their tally to 66. My bet would be United to collect wins against Liverpool and Norwich, but be held at the Lane. 7 points takes them to 62. We have to be looking to beat Newcastle on Saturday teatime, and I’d take a point in each of the next two games. I know we should be looking to win every game, especially at home, but realistically think that 5 points from the next 9 will be as many as we get.
Sadly, I think Chelsea will take a full house against weak opposition (we can but hope Pienaar puts in a MotM performance to beat them though?). They will improve their GD and move to 52 points from 27 matches. Newcastle will lose at our place, but sweep Wolves aside, before taking a point from the derby game v Sunderland. Only 4 points will see them lose ground, sat on 46. RVP will be enough to beat Sunderland however, prior to hosting us to a no doubt nerve-wracking draw. I think they’ll suffer at Anfield against a decent (ish) looking Liverpool. Their 4 point haul will drag them up to 44 points.
Liverpool only play two league games over this period, and I have already predicted 3 points from these games above.

So, with an if as big as Arsenal’s dependency on their little Dutchman, here is how the league will look ahead of the Everton game on March 10th

Man City P27 Pts 66
Man Utd P27 Pts 62
Spurs P27 Pts 55
Chelsea P27 Pts 52
Newcastle P27 Pts 46
Arsenal P27 Pts 44
Liverpool P26 Pts 42

No changes to position, but a drift further away from the Manc clubs, and an erosion of our lead of Chelsea.

As I said, 3 is a magic number, as that is the position I think we’ll hold in 3 matches’ time, and 3 is the lead I think we’ll have before the Goodison kick off. A couple of weeks later and we’re off to Stamford Bridge where the battle for third may be won or lost.

Where does everyone else think we’ll be after these three matches? Let me know on here, or on Twitter (@ChunkyTHFC)

Chunky